2026 Texas and North Carolina Primaries: Results Takeaways

What happened

On Tuesday, March 4, 2026, voters in Texas and North Carolina cast ballots in their primaries. According to AP News reporting by Maya Sweedler, Robert Yoon, Simran Parwani and Humera Lodhi, the results were released on Wednesday evening with several key developments.

In Texas's Senate race, neither incumbent Senator John Cornyn nor state Attorney General Ken Paxton cleared the 50% threshold necessary to avoid a May runoff election. As of 11:30 a.m. Wednesday, Cornyn led Paxton by about 26,000 votes out of a total 2.1 million counted so far. The margin varied significantly by county: Cornyn trailed by roughly 1,700 votes in Harris County (home to Houston) and by 4,000 votes in Bexar County (home to San Antonio). However, in Montgomery County north of Houston, Paxton built a 21,000-vote advantage.

In the context of the 2024 presidential election, Trump won at least 80% of the vote in over half of Texas's counties. Paxton received more total votes in counties where Trump won at least 70% of the vote in 2024.

For Democratic Senate candidate State Rep. James Talarico, the results show a geographically concentrated base of support: he received nearly 70% of the vote in heavily Democratic Austin and rural central counties, about 60% across regions along the U.S.-Mexico border where Trump made inroads in 2024, and carried both Hidalgo County (southern tip) with nearly 70% of the vote and El Paso County (westernmost county) with more than 60% of the vote. East Texas comprised less than 8% of the total primary vote.

In North Carolina's House races, spending data from AdImpact shows significant ad expenditures: Laurie Buckhout had over $1 million in ad spending alone in the 1st District, Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw's campaign benefited from more than $2.3 million attacking his opponent state Rep. Steve Toth, and Brandon Herrera spent almost $1.4 million on ads attacking Rep. Tony G.

Why it matters

The Texas Senate primary results indicate a competitive race that will require a runoff election in May. The fact that neither candidate reached the 50% threshold suggests deep divisions among Republican voters, with significant geographic variation in support patterns. Cornyn's leads in major urban counties like Harris and Bexar contrast with Paxton's advantage in Montgomery County, reflecting different regional voting preferences.

The correlation between Trump's 2024 performance and the current primary results—particularly Paxton's stronger showing in counties where Trump won at least 70% of the vote—suggests that Republican voters are maintaining their preference for more conservative candidates in areas with strong Republican leanings.

For Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, the results show a geographically concentrated base of support, performing well in Austin and border regions but with minimal presence in East Texas, which accounted for less than 8% of the total primary vote.

The North Carolina ad spending figures highlight the intensity of the House races, with candidates investing heavily in advertising to attack opponents or defend their positions.

What to watch

The May runoff election in Texas will determine whether Cornyn or Paxton secures the Senate seat, with the outcome likely to depend on turnout and voter mobilization efforts in both camps. The geographic patterns established in the primary—particularly the urban-rural divide—will likely continue into the general election.

In North Carolina, the House races remain competitive with significant advertising investments from all sides. The outcomes of these races will affect the partisan composition of the state legislature heading into 2027.

The spending data and voting patterns may inform future campaign strategies for both parties as they prepare for the general elections later in 2026.

By the numbers

Key figures from the primary results: - 50%: threshold needed to avoid May runoff in Texas Senate race - 26,000: vote lead for Cornyn over Paxton as of 11:30 a.m. Wednesday - 2.1 million: total votes counted in Texas Senate primary - 1,700: vote margin in Harris County (Houston) - 4,000: vote margin in Bexar County (San Antonio) - 21,000: Paxton's vote advantage in Montgomery County - 80%: Trump's vote share threshold in Texas counties (2024) - over half: number of Texas counties where Trump won at least 80% in 2024 - nearly 70%: Talarico's vote share in Austin/rural central counties - about 60%: Talarico's vote share along U.S.-Mexico border regions - nearly 70%: Talarico's vote share in Hidalgo County - more than 60%: Talarico's vote share in El Paso County - less than 8%: East Texas as percentage of total primary vote - over $1 million: Laurie Buckhout's ad spending in NC 1st District - more than $2.3 million: Dan Crenshaw's campaign ad spending attacking Steve Toth - almost $1.4 million: Brandon Herrera's ad spending attacking Rep. Tony G

Source snapshot

Sources: AP News, "Results takeaways from the 2026 Texas and North Carolina primaries," updated 5:49 PM EDT, March 4, 2026.