30-Year Treasury Yield Crosses 5.61%, Highest Since 2002, as Global Bond Sell-Off Deepens

The 30-year US Treasury yield rose for a sixth straight session on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, crossing 5.61% to touch its highest level since 2002, according to a Bloomberg report carried by CNBC TV18 and published at 10:07 PM IST. The move takes the long end of the market deeper into pre-low-rate-era territory and caps what the Bloomberg text describes as the biggest Treasury sell-off since the April 2025 tariff rollout. The 10-year yield traded at 5.28%, its highest since 2007, while the two-year yield sat at about 4.93%, the last major maturity still below the 5% mark. Ground News's aggregation of the same story cites the 10-year settling at 5.2278% and the 30-year easing to 5.466% intraday before the 5.61% print, per Ground News. On Bloomberg's gauge, the $32 trillion Treasuries market has lost 2.6% this year, a sharp reversal from the 6.3% gain posted last year.

What happened

The sell-off gathered pace through September, a month that is shaping up as the worst for Treasuries since 2023. Over the past decade, the asset class has posted a median loss of 0.9% in September and 0.7% in October, according to the Bloomberg figures carried by CNBC TV18, and this year's drawdown has run well beyond that seasonal pattern.

Several drivers are cited in the reporting. Elevated oil prices tied to the seven-month US-Iran war are feeding inflation expectations. Heavy corporate debt supply is absorbing demand at the long end, with Paramount Skydance Corp. launching its investment-grade bond sale on Tuesday, the largest portion of a $52 billion debt package for its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., seeking about $32 billion. Concerns over US government borrowing and surging business activity round out the list. Traders now price in a more than 72% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, per the same report.

Monty Gandhi, rates strategist at SMBC, tied the long-end move directly to the credit calendar: "We have the fifth-largest investment-grade deal on record. Some of this move in the long end is likely related to that."

Why it matters

A 30-year yield above 5.6% resets the cost of long-term borrowing across the economy, from mortgages to corporate debt, and marks the deepest retreat yet from the low-rate era that followed the 2008 financial crisis. The two-year yield at roughly 4.93% means nearly the entire Treasury curve now sits at or above 5%, a level last seen broadly in the mid-2000s.

The sell-off is also testing conviction among professional investors. Citigroup strategists describe the absence of dip-buyers as a "light buyer's strike." Prashant Newnaha of TD Securities was blunter: "It's been a train wreck in rates over September, and the pain trade may continue… As long as there is no Middle East resolution, there is a risk that we see ongoing de-risking in fixed income and it could spread to equities as well." Masahiko Loo of State Street Investment Management pointed to the calendar ahead: "Going into Thanksgiving, the combination of renewed Treasury supply, heavy credit issuance and relentless AI capex demand suggests competition for capital remains intense, keeping the risk of further Treasury volatility elevated."

Yardeni Research attributes part of the move to an unwind of the yen-funded carry trade, a mechanism that has historically amplified swings in US rates when funding currencies come under pressure.

Not every strategist is bearish. Jim Bianco is bullish on Treasuries for the first time in six years. Chris Iggo says bonds are set for a rebound after four difficult years. Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at RBC BlueBay, argues the global bond sell-off has been overdone. Their positioning puts a contrarian floor of opinion under a market that has otherwise seen buyers step away.

How it is being covered

Ground News counts 10 sources carrying the story, with a left/centre/right split of 14/57/29 percent and 7 of 10 rated high or very high on factuality, per ground.news, which flags no blindspot. The reporting splits into four distinct angles: the supply and issuance angle, built around the Paramount Skydance deal and the SMBC quote; the geopolitical angle, linking oil from the US-Iran war to inflation expectations; the contrarian angle, giving space to the bullish calls from Bianco, Iggo and Dowding; and the mechanical angle, led by Yardeni's carry-trade unwind thesis. The centre holds the largest share of outlets at 57 percent, with right-leaning coverage at 29 percent and left-leaning at 14 percent, the lightest of the three. The detailed factual spine of the available text rests on the Bloomberg wire as carried by CNBC TV18, supplemented by Ground News's summary of intraday prints; a Wall Street Journal live coverage card and a Seeking Alpha read were paywalled or blocked, and a third outlet carried no article text, so independent second-source reporting on the specific yields is limited in what was accessible for this digest.

What to watch

The October Federal Reserve meeting, where traders assign a more than 72% probability to a rate hike, is the nearest scheduled catalyst. Treasury supply and the pace of investment-grade issuance, including the remainder of the Paramount Skydance package, will shape demand at the long end. Oil price movements tied to the US-Iran conflict, now in its seventh month, bear watching for their effect on inflation expectations. Seasonal history, with a median October loss of 0.7% over the past decade, offers a statistical backdrop without dictating an outcome. Whether the contrarian bullish calls from Bianco, Iggo and Dowding attract followers, or the de-risking Newnaha warns could spread to equities takes hold, will be the practical test of the coming weeks.

By the numbers

Source snapshot