AP-NORC Poll Reveals Low Confidence in Federal Government Institutions as 2026 Midterms Approach
AP-NORC polling data from October 2025 reveals deeply divided American public opinion on confidence in federal government institutions, with only 15% expressing great deal of confidence in executive branch, 4% in Congress, and 14% in Supreme Court.
What Happened
A new AP-NORC poll conducted October 9, 2025 reveals deeply divided American public opinion about confidence in federal government institutions. The polling data shows stark contrasts in how Americans view the executive branch, Congress, and the Supreme Court.
According to the AP-NORC polling tracker published on https://apnews.com/projects/polling-tracker/, only 15% of Americans say they have a "great deal" of confidence in the executive branch, while 36% say they have "only some" confidence and 47% report having "hardly any" confidence. The poll results indicate that nearly half of the public expresses minimal trust in the executive branch's ability to govern effectively.
Congress faces even steeper challenges in maintaining public trust. The same October 2025 polling data shows just 4% of Americans have a "great deal" of confidence in Congress, with 43% expressing "only some" confidence and 51% reporting they have "hardly any" confidence in the legislative branch. This represents one of the lowest levels of congressional approval in recent polling history.
The Supreme Court also struggles to maintain broad public confidence. According to the AP-NORC data, only 14% of Americans express a "great deal" of confidence in the nation's highest court, while 48% say they have "only some" confidence and 37% report having "hardly any" confidence in the judicial branch.
Why It Matters
These polling numbers carry significant implications as the 2026 midterm elections approach. Low institutional confidence can influence voter behavior, shape campaign messaging, and affect how Americans evaluate government performance across key policy areas.
The executive branch's low approval rating of 15% for "great deal" confidence suggests that President Trump faces substantial challenges in building public support for his administration's agenda. This metric directly impacts how voters assess the president's handling of domestic and foreign policy issues.
Congress's even lower 4% "great deal" confidence rating indicates deep partisan divisions and skepticism about legislative effectiveness. These numbers reflect broader concerns about congressional gridlock, spending debates, and the ability to pass meaningful legislation.
The Supreme Court's 14% "great deal" confidence rating reveals ongoing public debate about judicial independence and the court's role in American governance. Recent high-profile decisions and partisan appointments have contributed to these divided public sentiments.
What to Watch
Several key developments will shape how these polling numbers evolve in coming months:
First, upcoming Supreme Court rulings on major issues including abortion rights, gun control, and campaign finance could significantly impact public confidence in the judicial branch. The court's composition and decision-making patterns will be closely watched by both supporters and critics.
Second, congressional actions on key legislation such as immigration reform, economic policy, and social programs will test whether Congress can overcome its low approval ratings to deliver results that satisfy a broader range of Americans.
Third, executive branch decisions on foreign policy, particularly regarding ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, will influence public confidence in presidential leadership. The administration's ability to navigate international crises while maintaining domestic support will be closely monitored.
The polling data also suggests that institutional trust remains a persistent challenge for American democracy. As the 2026 midterm elections approach, candidates on both sides of the political spectrum will likely focus their messaging on restoring public confidence in government institutions.
The AP-NORC polling tracker continues to provide real-time updates on these metrics, allowing analysts and campaign strategists to track how public sentiment evolves throughout the election cycle. The October 2025 data serves as a critical baseline for measuring changes in institutional confidence as the political landscape shifts.
By the numbers
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