Consumer Confidence Sinks to a Twelve-Year Low as Price and Job Worries Mount

What happened

American consumers' assessment of the economy fell in September to its weakest level since 2014, according to The Conference Board, whose Consumer Confidence Index dropped 6.7 points to 81.9, down from a downwardly revised 88.6 in August and well short of the 89 consensus forecast among economists surveyed by Dow Jones, per tippinsights. The survey, conducted September 1 to 23, recorded a Present Situation Index decline of 7.9 points to 109.3 and a 5.9-point slide in the Expectations Index to 63.6, the third consecutive monthly drop for that measure. Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson said the index "deteriorated notably in September, following two prior months of softening," adding that consumer appraisals of current business conditions "became negative for the first time since September 2024" while perceptions of the labor market "worsened, though remained within positive territory."

Inflation expectations rose to 6.1 percent over the coming period, up 0.3 percentage points from August, and 68.4 percent of consumers said they anticipate higher interest rates over the next 12 months. Peterson said write-in comments cited "prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas prices in particular," which respondents said "rose to new heights," a reflection of September's surge in fuel costs. Mentions of war eased but remained elevated, and politics, trade and employment also appeared frequently in comments. Labor-market anxiety intensified: the gap between Americans saying jobs are plentiful and those finding jobs hard to get narrowed to 1.7 percent. Separately, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 7.08 million job openings in August, down 256,000 from July. Net views of family finances turned negative for the second time in four years, and, according to the Conference Board's own read of the survey as reported in the Ground News story cluster, concerns over a potential U.S. recession intensified among respondents. The survey window included a federal funds rate increase and ongoing geopolitical strain, with the Iran war cited in AP's framing of elevated prices and stagnant wages.

Why it matters

The September reading is the lowest since 2014, meaning consumer sentiment has now fallen below levels recorded during the pandemic era and its aftermath, a comparison drawn in the Washington Post's version of the story, which the team could not load and therefore did not verify directly. Confidence indexes are watched as leading indicators because sustained weakness in the Expectations Index has historically been associated with reduced consumer spending, which drives a large share of U.S. economic activity. The combination of rising inflation expectations, a narrowing jobs-plentiful gap and negative net views of family finances suggests households are simultaneously more worried about prices, borrowing costs and employment, a mix that economists cited in coverage said can feed on itself if consumers pull back. The data also lands in a charged policy environment: the survey period contained a federal funds rate increase, and respondents' frequent references to trade and politics indicate that Washington's economic stewardship is part of how Americans are interpreting their own finances. The BLS job openings figure, down 256,000 in a single month, points in the same direction as the survey's labor-market answers, though both are snapshots rather than forecasts.

How it is being covered

The story is carried by 73 outlets, with a 30 percent left, 44 percent centre and 26 percent right split, according to ground.news, and 48 of 53 rated sources in the cluster score high or very high on factuality. Coverage across the spectrum emphasizes the same core numbers, the 81.9 index level and the 2014 comparison, with no blindspot identified in the cluster, though individual outlets frame the causes differently, some foregrounding fuel prices and the rate environment and others the geopolitical backdrop. The breadth of the cluster, spanning wire services, financial outlets and commentary sites on both sides of the aisle, indicates the reading is being treated as a broad economic signal rather than a partisan talking point, at least in headline framing.

What to watch

Analysts will be looking at whether October's Conference Board reading confirms a trend or reflects a one-month shock tied to fuel prices, given that the Expectations Index has now fallen for three straight months. The University of Michigan's sentiment survey, due in early October, will offer a second read on whether inflation expectations are becoming entrenched near the 6.1 percent level consumers reported. On the labor side, the next BLS job openings release and the monthly employment report will show whether the narrowing jobs-plentiful gap translates into actual hiring weakness. Any further Federal Reserve rate decisions, and consumer reaction to them, will also shape the confidence trajectory, as will developments in fuel prices, which respondents singled out by name.

By the numbers

Source snapshot