High Airfares Could Stick Around Even If Jet Fuel Prices Fall

Travelers shopping for holiday flights on Friday, Sept. 25, 2026, encountered the highest airfares in a decade, with round-trip domestic tickets for Thanksgiving averaging $402 and Christmas $452, according to booking company Hopper, and major U.S. airlines and industry analysts say those fares could remain elevated even if oil and jet fuel prices retreat, as reported by WTOP News, carrying The Associated Press. The war in the Middle East and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have curtailed fuel production, pushing jet fuel to $4.53 a gallon on the Argus index as of Sept. 17, 2026, and leaving carriers with both higher costs and, in their view, a reason to keep new ticket prices high. The story is the lead business item of the day, carried by 67 outlets, more than any other story in the business feed, per aggregation by ground.news.

What happened

The fare surge traces directly to fuel. Jet fuel has risen even faster than crude during the war, reflecting both higher oil prices and tight supplies of the refined product, one of airlines' largest operating expenses. Per the IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor for the week ending Sept. 18, 2026, the global average jet fuel price stands at $194.65 per barrel, with U.S. operators paying $193.65 and European carriers $207.56, versus roughly $100 per barrel at the end of 2024, as reported by Leeham News and Analysis on Sept. 28, 2026. The current average includes a refining crack spread of $67.14, meaning the cost of turning crude into jet fuel is itself a major driver of the increase.

Airline executives have been explicit about the arithmetic, per the AP report carried by WTOP News. American Airlines CFO Devon May said the carrier faces an additional $1 billion in fourth-quarter fuel costs, and that every penny increase per gallon adds about $10 million to its quarterly bill. United Airlines CFO Mike Leskinen noted that about 35% of United's tickets for the final three months of the year were already booked before fuel prices spiked, which prevents the carrier from retroactively raising those fares and gives airlines a reason to keep new fares elevated to recover the margin on the seats still unsold.

Carriers have responded on both sides of the ledger, cutting some less profitable flights while raising fares and baggage fees, though higher passenger revenue initially covered only part of the added cost. Brett House, an economist who teaches at Columbia Business School, said the war's sharp swings in jet fuel, which rose after the Iran war began, retreated in the spring, then surged again over the summer, make it harder for airlines to plan ahead and give them "a reason to be cautious about lowering ticket prices."

Why it matters

The fare levels land at the worst possible moment for household budgets, since Thanksgiving and Christmas are the heaviest booking weeks of the year and the Hopper figures of $402 and $452 represent decade highs for domestic round trips. For the airlines themselves, the squeeze is severe: Leeham News projects the final quarter of 2026 to be a difficult period for U.S. carriers as fuel costs compress already-thin margins, and American's $1 billion incremental fuel bill for the quarter illustrates the scale of the hit across the industry. The structure of the increase also matters for how long it lasts. Because the crack spread of $67.14 per barrel is embedded in the price, jet fuel costs may not fall in step with crude, meaning relief for airlines could lag any easing in oil markets. The pre-booking dynamic United described adds a further wrinkle: with roughly a third of fourth-quarter tickets sold at pre-spike prices, carriers have a built-in incentive to hold new fares high even after fuel eases, which is precisely the scenario analysts warn could keep holiday pricing elevated into 2027.

How it is being covered

The story is carried by 67 outlets, with 56 rated for quality, and 51 of those rated high or very high for factuality, according to ground.news. The political split is 34% left, 57% centre and 9% right, making this a story dominated by centre and left-of-centre coverage. The blindspot sits on the right: right-leaning outlets are largely not covering the airfare and fuel-cost story at all, leaving a gap in how a significant share of readers encounter it.

What to watch

Delta Air Lines kicks off airline earnings season on October 9, 2026, and fuel costs will be a top discussion item on that call, with the other majors reporting in the weeks after. Watch for updated fourth-quarter fuel guidance from American and United, any further cuts to less profitable routes, and whether the Argus jet fuel price holds near $4.53 a gallon or retreats. Fare data from Hopper and rivals in the coming weeks will show whether holiday pricing holds at decade highs or softens as booking windows close.

By the numbers

Source snapshot