Talarico Holds 5-Point Lead Over Paxton in Texas Senate Poll as Statewide Races Tighten Before Nov. 3 Midterms

What happened

A new poll from Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 49% to 44% in Texas's U.S. Senate race, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3% and 3% undecided, according to Washington Examiner. The survey of 1,007 likely Texas voters was conducted Sept. 19 to 22, 2026, and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. The Senate contest is the only surveyed statewide race in which Republicans trail: Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 4 points, Republican Mayes Middleton leads Democrat Nathan Johnson by 3 points for attorney general, and Republican Bo French leads Democrat Jon Rosenthal by 1 point for railroad commissioner, per the same poll. Polling averages put the Senate race at Talarico 47.9% to Paxton 44.8%, a rating of toss-up, while the governor's race is rated "likely Republican" even though Abbott's lead has shrunk 2.5 points since August, KSAT 12 reported. Election Day in Texas is Nov. 3, 2026, and the voter registration deadline is Oct. 5.

Talarico's strength in the TPOR survey extends across demographic groups. He holds a 32-point lead among independents and leads among Black, Latino, under-55 and college-educated voters, as well as among both men and women, while Paxton leads only among voters 55 and over and white voters, according to the Washington Examiner. A separate Marist Poll cited in a Ground News summary put Talarico ahead 50% to 44%, and showed Hinojosa leading Abbott 49% to 46%, a sharper Democratic edge than TPOR found in the governor's race.

Money is flowing into the state at a scale unusual for a Texas midterm. More than $183 million has been spent on Senate race advertising, with Republicans outspending Democrats more than 3-to-1, $140 million to $43.7 million, including money from Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Texas PAC, linked to Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota, has pledged $120 million to boost Paxton and could send as much as another $80 million, while Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's Senate Majority PAC launched a Texas-focused PAC called "Texas Forever" last week to assist Talarico, the Washington Examiner reported. Talarico's campaign has raised $72 million since the beginning of 2025, against Paxton's $16.8 million.

Why it matters

Democrats have not won a statewide office in Texas since 1993, so a Talarico victory would break a three-decade drought in the nation's second-largest state and could shift the balance of the U.S. Senate. The race has drawn national party money from both directions, with leaders in both chambers of Congress directing nine-figure sums toward a single state contest. The economy is a live issue: 38% of voters say their finances worsened over the last year, and affordability ranks as a top concern, according to a Ground News summary of the Marist Poll. On the generic congressional ballot, 49% favor the Democratic candidate against 46% for the Republican, a margin that, if it held nationally, would matter for control of the House. UT San Antonio political science professor Jon Taylor told KSAT that the heavy Republican spending suggests GOP internal polling is uncomfortable: "I think that's why you're seeing the alarm bells being rung, and why you're seeing people dumping in a ton of money."

How it is being covered

Ground News tracks 33 sources carrying the story, with a 13% left, 48% centre and 39% right split, and 14 of 23 rated outlets at high or very high factuality. Coverage spans the spectrum with no identified blindspot, though right-leaning outlets such as the Washington Examiner have emphasized GOP counterprogramming, including Trump's "Talafreako" moniker for Talarico and attacks on what the outlet described as his "heterodox religious views and left-wing social views."

What to watch

Both parties' national committees: whether Texas PAC's pledged $120 million, and potentially up to $200 million total, arrives in Paxton's advertising, and whether "Texas Forever" sustains Talarico's air support through Election Day. The governor's race deserves attention as well, since TPOR has Abbott ahead by 4 points while the Marist Poll has Hinojosa ahead by 3, a gap wider than either survey's margin of error. Taylor urged caution about any single poll with 37 days remaining: "Look at the margin of error, anything above three and a half percent, you've got to take with a grain of salt... they're always lagging behind." The Oct. 5 registration deadline and any movement among the 3% of undecided Senate voters are the next concrete markers.

By the numbers

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