Trump Weighs "Very Seriously" a U.S. Diesel Export Ban as Prices Hover Near Record Highs

President Donald Trump said on Sunday, September 27, 2026, that his administration is "very seriously" considering a ban on U.S. diesel fuel exports, as average retail diesel prices hover just below their record high of $6.53 per gallon set on September 22, according to AAA figures cited in coverage of the story. Speaking to a Fox News reporter while attending the Presidents Cup golf tournament in Illinois, Trump said, "We're thinking about it very seriously," and added, "That can oftentimes lead to a little bit of an increase on gasoline for cars, so we're looking at it very seriously. We may do it." The remarks came days after Politico reported that the administration was preparing a plan to ban diesel exports for 90 days, a step Energy Secretary Chris Wright has framed as one of several options under consideration, with talks reportedly underway with refiners about voluntary export limits. The proposal has drawn sharp opposition from the oil industry and warnings from commodity analysts that restricting exports could raise fuel prices globally and feed back into U.S. gasoline costs, all against the backdrop of a fuel crunch tied to the U.S.–Iran hostilities, the Russia–Ukraine war and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

What happened

Trump's comments at the Presidents Cup marked his most direct public confirmation to date that an export restriction is on the table. "We're thinking about it very seriously," he told Fox News, while acknowledging that a ban "can oftentimes lead to a little bit of an increase on gasoline for cars." He said the administration "may do it," without specifying a timeline, though he had said earlier this month that a decision would come quickly "one way or another," per UNN.

The policy discussion has been building for weeks. Politico reported last week that the administration was preparing a 90-day export ban. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has since said the White House is weighing restrictions rather than an outright ban, and, per Bloomberg reporting carried by UNN, has been in talks with refiners about voluntary limits on shipments abroad. U.S. diesel exports hit a record of roughly 2 million barrels per day last month, according to the same reporting, underscoring how central American refined product has become to global fuel supply.

The price backdrop is severe. Average U.S. retail diesel stood around $6.50 a gallon on Friday, September 25, per AAA, just below the record of $6.53 set three days earlier and up sharply from a year ago. The crunch reflects overlapping disruptions: U.S.–Iran hostilities, the Russia–Ukraine war, supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, and Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. Trump has previously urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to stop targeting Russian refineries, saying the attacks are "hurting the world."

Why it matters

Diesel is the fuel of freight, farming and industry, and its price ripples through food, shipping and household costs. With the November 3, 2026 midterms approaching, soaring diesel prices are straining farmers, truckers and households in agricultural states, and representatives of those states are urging the president to act, per the findings gathered from CNBC and UNN.

The competing prescriptions set up a consequential policy fight. The American Petroleum Institute opposes restrictions: API CEO Mike Sommers said "restricting U.S. energy exports would only compound the problem, exacerbating refining challenges and ultimately hurting consumers," adding, "The answer is more supply and more flexibility, not new restrictions that risk making a difficult situation worse." Oil companies have instead proposed temporarily suspending the federal diesel excise tax as an alternative.

Analysts warn the cure could carry costs of its own. Morgan Stanley commodity strategists wrote in a Thursday, September 24 research note that a U.S. export restriction would likely lower U.S. diesel prices initially "but with potentially adverse reactions downstream," and that "not only would diesel prices be higher globally, but there could be a feedback loop to US gasoline prices as refinery runs adjust." Benedict George, head of European product pricing at Argus Media, said a U.S. restriction would send European diesel prices and premiums against crude "to a new unprecedented level," noting the U.S. has supplied about half of Europe's diesel imports over the last couple of months. He called diesel "the biggest problem for the global oil system, whereas before it was one of several very big problems." Bloomberg reported that U.S. partners including the UK and Brazil would have to scramble for alternative suppliers under a ban.

How it is being covered

According to ground.news, eight outlets are carrying the story, with a left/centre/right split of 60/40/0 percent, and five of the eight rated high or very high factuality. The outlet split shows a blindspot on the right: no right-leaning outlets are covering the story, per ground.news, meaning readers relying on right-leaning sources may not encounter the industry and analyst warnings about the proposal's downstream effects.

What to watch

• Whether the administration announces a 90-day export ban, a voluntary limit deal with refiners, or neither, and on what timeline Trump's "one way or another" pledge implies.
• Any move on the oil industry's alternative proposal to suspend the federal diesel excise tax.
• Diesel and gasoline price trajectories at the pump, and whether U.S. prices fall while European premiums spike, as Morgan Stanley and Argus Media have warned.
• Reaction from UK and Brazilian officials, whom Bloomberg identified as partners that would need new suppliers under a ban.
• Political pressure from agricultural-state lawmakers ahead of the November 3 midterms, and whether Trump repeats his calls for Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian refineries.

By the numbers

Source snapshot