US and Iran Explore Phased Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz as Blockade Nears Seven-Month Mark

What happened

United States and Iranian negotiators met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York on Thursday, Sept. 25, 2026, to explore a phased agreement under which Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Washington would lift its economic blockade of Iranian ports, according to a person familiar with the discussions (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/09/25/world/politics/hormuz-phased-reopening/). The phased-deal framework was separately reported by IBTimes UK, which cited a senior Iranian official describing the same staged approach, providing a second outlet's account of the negotiations (https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/us-iran-phased-deal-reopen-strait-hormuz-1821815).

Qatari officials are mediating the talks. A sequenced arrangement would resemble a memorandum of understanding reached in mid-June 2026 that produced a fragile ceasefire, which collapsed just weeks later (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/09/25/world/politics/hormuz-phased-reopening/). Under the framework under discussion, Tehran could regain access to some frozen assets, and Iran is prepared to defer its contentious demand for ship transit fees through the strait by placing that issue in a separate side agreement (https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/us-iran-phased-deal-reopen-strait-hormuz-1821815).

The senior Iranian official described the approach in staged terms: "One way forward would be to solve the crisis in stages. The first would be to end the blockade and reopen Hormuz." The same official warned "Our fingers are on the trigger" and said that "because of their excessive demands, the chances of diplomacy resolving this are extremely low" (https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/us-iran-phased-deal-reopen-strait-hormuz-1821815).

On the American side, President Donald Trump warned that Iran's economy could "rot" unless it reached a deal, and he has suggested that a US-Iran agreement is more likely after the Nov. 3 midterm elections. He faces political pressure to stabilize Gulf oil supplies and lower gasoline prices before the vote (https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/us-iran-phased-deal-reopen-strait-hormuz-1821815).

The diplomatic activity comes amid parallel pressure campaigns. This month, the US targeted Iran's remaining commercial airlines and the Revolutionary Guards as part of a broader economic effort. At the General Assembly, some 80 countries issued a joint statement calling for the urgent reopening of the waterway while also condemning Iran and its Houthi allies over attacks and disruption to trade and energy security. Separately, Gulf leaders meeting with Trump rejected any Iranian control over the strait and demanded full freedom of navigation (https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/us-iran-phased-deal-reopen-strait-hormuz-1821815).

Why it matters

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical artery for global energy supplies, and its closure has been the central flashpoint of a conflict now in its near seventh month. A phased reopening paired with a blockade lift would mark the most significant de-escalation since the June ceasefire collapsed, but the track record of the mid-June memorandum of understanding, which fell apart within weeks, looms over the current effort (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/09/25/world/politics/hormuz-phased-reopening/).

The timing carries domestic political weight on both sides. Trump's suggestion that a deal is more likely after the Nov. 3 midterms, combined with his pressure to lower gasoline prices before the vote, ties the negotiation calendar to American electoral politics. Former US negotiator Dennis Ross estimated a 30 percent chance of a deal before the midterms, saying "The blockade is what's really squeezing the Iranians. It's strangling them" (https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/us-iran-phased-deal-reopen-strait-hormuz-1821815).

Analysts are divided on whether economic pressure produces concessions or escalation. Former US Iran negotiator Alan Eyre warned: "The blockade is hurting them, but rather than softening their position, it is likely to drive them to escalate because they believe that if they soften their position, they are dead" (https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/us-iran-phased-deal-reopen-strait-hormuz-1821815). That assessment stands in tension with the position advanced by Ross, who framed the blockade as the principal source of pressure on Tehran and, in his view, the engine of any prospective deal (https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/us-iran-phased-deal-reopen-strait-hormuz-1821815).

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, meeting Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten in New York, said Tehran remained open to dialogue but blamed Washington for actions that derailed previous diplomatic efforts and led to war (https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/us-iran-phased-deal-reopen-strait-hormuz-1821815). The 80-country joint statement illustrates the breadth of international concern, pairing calls for reopening the waterway with condemnation of Iranian and Houthi attacks, a signal that Tehran faces diplomatic isolation even among states urging de-escalation.

What to watch

First, whether the Qatar-mediated talks produce a signed sequenced agreement or stall, and whether the transit-fee demand stays in a side agreement or resurfaces as a sticking point. Second, whether any interim steps, such as asset unfreezes or port access, are implemented before the Nov. 3 midterms, which Ross gives only a 30 percent chance of arriving in time. Third, the risk of escalation before or between negotiating rounds: the senior Iranian official's "fingers are on the trigger" warning and Eyre's assessment that pressure may drive escalation both point to the possibility that military or economic action could overtake diplomacy. Fourth, the durability of any deal, given that the mid-June memorandum of understanding collapsed within weeks. Fifth, whether Gulf states' rejection of any Iranian control over the strait constrains the terms Washington can accept, and whether the 80-country coalition's statement translates into sustained multilateral pressure on both parties.

By the numbers

Source snapshot